Wednesday, January 18, 2006

The 2008 Olympic Team

Well it's that time again. Colangelo is getting a team together. Unfortunately, we will not be seeing some of our best players on the squad. Duncan hated his experience and will not play. Garnett doesn't feel like it - he already has a gold. And McGrady has too many back problems. Also, keep in mind that last time we learned that we have to make a team as opposed to a star-studded jersey selling machine.

In my opinion, we lacked people who understood that they indeed were role players. We also lacked people who could hit the (albeit shallow) 3 ball. So we couldn't spread out defenses. Moreover, we lacked a true point guard. We had a bunch of hybrids in Marbury, AI and D Wade. AI and Wade have since evolved into strong point guards, but I argue that we could do with another strong playmaker. Finally, I think we could do with at least one defensive specialist. Imagine if we could shut down Manu. Do you really think Argentina would do so well then?

The 12 I see fitting best:

PG: Chauncey Billups, Dwyane Wade** (2)
SG: Kobe Bryant, Michael Redd* (2)

I think J Kidd and AI will be too old by 2008. I know Iverson wants to play, and I'm as big an Iverson fan as anyone. But I don't know that an old AI brings anything to the table. All of his strengths, aside from his passion and toughness, rely on his physical gifts. So a 34 year old AI on the squad? I'd be a little concerned.

*Like with many players, Kobe does not get along with Ray Allen. Hence we take Redd. (Yes, Kobe is just that good.)
**Like Allen, and many other players in the league, Wade has had issues with Bryant. The difference is, Wade, the league's leader in the Roland Rating measure (a composite of on/off court and netPER), is not replacable. Allen can be swapped for Redd.

SF: LeBron James, Tayshaun Prince, Rashard Lewis (3)
None of these guys have overblown egos and feel comfortable taking back seats. LeBron is a no brainer, and as we have seen, he is (a little too) unselfish at times - especially in the clutch. Tayshaun gives you Superman in a role player. He can be the lockdown guy. He can hit 3's. He can create his own shots. Whatever. Shard is money from beyond the arc.

PF: Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion (2)
These guys are unique in the same way (being able to guard bigs at the perimeter and being able to spread the defense) for different reasons.

Marion, among the most underrated players in the league, is the undersized 4 who can guard 3's and 4's in the US. He should have no problem staying with the 4's in the international game who can step out to the perimeter. This year, he is the best defender on the most efficient defensive team, and he has always been a very talented (and underrated) defender at that. His method is unique. He is one of the few 4's who gets a lot of steals and strips - but keep in mind that he isn't really a 4. Still, that doesn't prevent him from being a shot blocking threat, and he is averaging 2 blocks per game this season! Lastly, it doesn't hurt that, at his peak, Marion could hit the 3 at nearly 40%.

Bosh is very young. He is turning 22 this March. He is fairly lean (barely heavier than Bryant and Wade), but he plays the 4. He is a solid defender in the classical power forward sense - blocked shots and forcing misses - as opposed to Marion's strange but effective half-guard half-forward sense. He also has a nice shooting touch from mid-to-long range.

C: Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard (2)
Amare is an offensive beast. Dwight Howard is a defensive beast. Both are pretty young. (In fact, Howard, 20, is younger than me.)

Developing kids: Channing Frye (PF/C) or Chris Paul (PG) for the experience (1)
I like the idea of taking at least one of these two very young players. I think developing a young team will pay dividends inthe future. LeBron (22 at these olympics), Bosh (22), Howard (22), Stoudemire (26), and Wade (26) make a nice core. But at least some of them probably won't be healthy in the future. Maybe, god forbid, Stoudemire's surgery doesn't pan out. Or maybe his knee goes Chris Webber. And whatever it is, Amare and D Wade are 30 by 2012. So I think giving Frye or Paul a taste of the olympics will be a good learning experience, and will put us in a position to replace whoever leaves the team for 2012. Chris Paul has proven himself to be just that good at the point. Frye seems to have a very high "basketball IQ", and while he is still a subpar boarder, the US rarely has problems there because we are a lot bigger than the rest. He gives us yet another big who can step out and hit a midrange jumper.


Attributes of this team:
1. Range: Of the first 9 players I listed, only Wade and Bosh aren't threats from deep. More interestingly, Marion, Lewis, Billups, and Redd shoot or have shot about 40% from the NBA 3 point line (longer than the FIBA 3 pt line). And Tay, LeBron, and Kobe certainly hit reasonably well, (36%, 35%, 34% over their careers, respectively). We need range to be able to spread out the defense and render the zones ineffective.
Lastly, we really need ranged players who can knock down open looks because three of our guys are uniquely physically gifted and are able to break down the zone and force it to collapse: Amare, DWade, and LeBron. We can always dump it into Amare, who is the Beast in the X-Men sense, and LeBron and D Wade can easily get into the middle of the zone and then dish it back to some open spot up shooter. So to exploit the strengths of these 3, it is key to have a great ranged team.

2. Egos: Wade, LeBron, Tayshaun, Billups, Rashard, Marion, Bosh, Howard all seem to have proven that they are not really egos. Most of them don't mind playing second fiddle to a player who has it going. (Even LeBron gives it up to hot teammates all the time.) The only concern here might be Bryant. But hopefully his "desire to kill everyone", as LeBron puts it, allows him to truly be a team player. And if not, at least we know that people may defer to him anyway.

3. Defense: Inside and out. I've said Kobe is overrated on defense. But that wasn't saying he was bad. He is undoubtedly very good and certainly takes it seriously. I just meant that he shouldn't be getting such high praise and motivating voters to make him DPOY. Recall that the international game requires more perimeter defense. It's like guarding the Kings and Mavs of 4 years ago. Bosh, Marion, and Frye give you that lateral movement from bigs who can guard other bigs outside and inside. With Dwight Howard, you get a beast inside who will be among the best shotblockers and rebounders, if not the best, in the entire international tournament. Tayshaun Prince is a key lockdown defender who can take out any SF or SG - and he is most effective when he has a good shotblocker. Thus, he can be paired with Dwight Howard. And Billups and Wade can hold their own against most any PG. There are, of course, a few defensive holes: LeBron James, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, and Amare Stoudemire. But since the international game isn't really conducive to grind-it-out defense, I suppose that's ok.

4. Clutch factor: Kobe Bryant has made ridiculous shots. This year, especially, he has been ridiculous. Billups has made ridiculous shots. Dwyane Wade, however limited in range, has made ridiculous shots since his rookie year, and in his sophomore year, hit both clutch outside jumpers and drilled clutch free throws in a conference Championship series. We have seen Tay hit big threes. And while these 4 may be the super clutch guys, the rest of the squad isn't too shabby either.

5. Age: This is a very young team. By its second run, D Wade, LeBron, and Amare will be seasoned vets. My bet is that at least one of them will have a ring by then. Not only does the age give us an athletic edge, which we always have regardless of age, but it gives us a core that can stay together for two olympics. Hopefully, the experienced team can help develop the new crop, and so on and so forth.


I think if this team lacks one thing, it is definitely an "energy" role player. It might be a little too mellow of a team. I was kind of considering Nate Robinson.

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

well you certainly have this thought out. reading your blog makes me want to get back into following basketball, but unfortunately for me, that will be harder this season than most. anyway, i feel more educated just reading what you have to say, and i certainly trust your expertise in the area. beijing 2008! we should go watch :]

January 19, 2006 11:45 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was kind of considering Andrew Mok. He can take out other players in ways unimaginable. He's quite the phagocytic creature. - jiwon

January 21, 2006 2:17 AM  
Blogger arun said...

don't you mean alex mok? ... minimok isn't the injury causing beast ;)

January 21, 2006 2:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

arun those colors are hideous. --al

January 22, 2006 11:05 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wade can't shoot well enough for the international game.

January 24, 2006 12:48 AM  
Blogger arun said...

i don't know that he has to be able to hit those outside shots. im taking him for different reasons. re-read the post.

January 25, 2006 10:10 PM  

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