MVP Race and All-Star Picks
MVP Race
Name (PER, Roland Rating)
1. Dirk Nowitzki (29.9, 15.5)
2. Tim Duncan (27.3, 13.8)
3. DWade (30.4, 16.7)
4. Gilbert Arenas (27.1, 15.5)
5. Steve Nash (26.0, 11.3)
6. Yao Ming (29.1, 13.5)
7. LeBron James (26.6, 14.1)
8. Kobe Bryant (25.6, 10.1)
This list is not that controversial - though perhaps the ordering might be. First, we address why Tim Duncan is so high despite not being as flashy as Kobe, James, or Nash. Well, he flat out is a more efficient player - for one. And two, adding to the fact that he has the 6th best (or so) PER in the league, let us remind ourselves that PER is an offense-biased metric. Considered to be the best defensive big man in the league (aside from arguably Ben Wallace), Tim is having a phenomenal season both offensively and defensively (in terms of efficiency) despite playing diminished minutes. Of course, as usual he plays quality minutes and gets his team a comfortable lead whenever he is in the game by impacting both ends of the floor. The Spurs would not be where they are (this year or for any of the last 9 years) without TD. It seems that we have gotten too used to his stellar play to be willing to bestow upon him another MVP-type accolade.
Second, I've been asked why DWade is on this list. For some odd reason, people seem to think that an MVP must be on the best team in the league. Barkley even went as far as to say "When I won MVP ... sure Michael was the best player ... but I should have won ... we were rewarded for being the best team". He repeated the same argument about Malone. But the best team has a lot more to do with coaching, management and scouting. A great system goes a long way to sustaining a great team, without even having great players (remember the Kings of old?). Of course, great players can (and sometimes are) members of excellent systems, and this should not be held against them. The obvious example here is Tim Duncan. The Spurs are probably the best run organization in the league - their scouting record (especially international scouting) is absurdly impressive. They look for character of players. They are extremely well coached. Etc. But the Spurs' system hinges on the unique play of a gifted forward/center who is skilled at screen settings, passing out of doubles, is virtually unguardable, all while being the mainstay of one of the best defenses in the league. Does anyone else other than TD fit this bill? Possibly, possibly, KG comes close. And that's the end of the list. The point to take away from this is we ought not judge what player was the most valuable based on the system - we must judge based on his own play. Wade's Heat are 15-12 with him on the floor and have not won a game with him out. That's the difference between 5th/6th seed versus last place in the Eastern Conference. His PER is league-high, as is his Roland Rating. Why, then, do I put him only at 3? I will be the first to maintain that PER, RR, and other statistics are not without their own faults. While they give us powerful metrics to better understand the game, they are not the last word.
Third, Yao is so low because he is a little hurt and his team (thanks to in part to McGrady's sort-of resurgance) is doing ok. The Rockets seem to be doing fine for two reasons. First, McGrady is a brilliant, absolutely brilliant passer as well as scorer. But second, and much more importantly, JVG's system is working. The Rockets are the league's best defensive team this year - with or without Yao. Yao may now be the league's best center. Still, I am hard pressed to say he is more valuable to the Rockets than is Nash, Gilbert, TD, or Dirk to their teams.
All-Star Picks
Leastern Conference
C Dwight Howard
F Jermaine O'Neal
F LeBron James
G Gilbert Arenas
G Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
David Lee
Michael Redd
Caron Butler
Vince Carter
Paul Pierce
Chauncey Billups
Western Conference
C Yao Ming (injured - so we have 13 players instead of 12)
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Tim Duncan
G Steve Nash
G Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett (14.3 - Roland Rating)
Josh Howard (12.0)
Carmelo Anthony (9.4)
Tracy McGrady (9.1)
Tony Parker (8.7)
Amare Stoudemire (8.1)
Shawn Marion (7.4)
Allen Iverson (7.0 - adjusted for time in both teams)
Name (PER, Roland Rating)
1. Dirk Nowitzki (29.9, 15.5)
2. Tim Duncan (27.3, 13.8)
3. DWade (30.4, 16.7)
4. Gilbert Arenas (27.1, 15.5)
5. Steve Nash (26.0, 11.3)
6. Yao Ming (29.1, 13.5)
7. LeBron James (26.6, 14.1)
8. Kobe Bryant (25.6, 10.1)
This list is not that controversial - though perhaps the ordering might be. First, we address why Tim Duncan is so high despite not being as flashy as Kobe, James, or Nash. Well, he flat out is a more efficient player - for one. And two, adding to the fact that he has the 6th best (or so) PER in the league, let us remind ourselves that PER is an offense-biased metric. Considered to be the best defensive big man in the league (aside from arguably Ben Wallace), Tim is having a phenomenal season both offensively and defensively (in terms of efficiency) despite playing diminished minutes. Of course, as usual he plays quality minutes and gets his team a comfortable lead whenever he is in the game by impacting both ends of the floor. The Spurs would not be where they are (this year or for any of the last 9 years) without TD. It seems that we have gotten too used to his stellar play to be willing to bestow upon him another MVP-type accolade.
Second, I've been asked why DWade is on this list. For some odd reason, people seem to think that an MVP must be on the best team in the league. Barkley even went as far as to say "When I won MVP ... sure Michael was the best player ... but I should have won ... we were rewarded for being the best team". He repeated the same argument about Malone. But the best team has a lot more to do with coaching, management and scouting. A great system goes a long way to sustaining a great team, without even having great players (remember the Kings of old?). Of course, great players can (and sometimes are) members of excellent systems, and this should not be held against them. The obvious example here is Tim Duncan. The Spurs are probably the best run organization in the league - their scouting record (especially international scouting) is absurdly impressive. They look for character of players. They are extremely well coached. Etc. But the Spurs' system hinges on the unique play of a gifted forward/center who is skilled at screen settings, passing out of doubles, is virtually unguardable, all while being the mainstay of one of the best defenses in the league. Does anyone else other than TD fit this bill? Possibly, possibly, KG comes close. And that's the end of the list. The point to take away from this is we ought not judge what player was the most valuable based on the system - we must judge based on his own play. Wade's Heat are 15-12 with him on the floor and have not won a game with him out. That's the difference between 5th/6th seed versus last place in the Eastern Conference. His PER is league-high, as is his Roland Rating. Why, then, do I put him only at 3? I will be the first to maintain that PER, RR, and other statistics are not without their own faults. While they give us powerful metrics to better understand the game, they are not the last word.
Third, Yao is so low because he is a little hurt and his team (thanks to in part to McGrady's sort-of resurgance) is doing ok. The Rockets seem to be doing fine for two reasons. First, McGrady is a brilliant, absolutely brilliant passer as well as scorer. But second, and much more importantly, JVG's system is working. The Rockets are the league's best defensive team this year - with or without Yao. Yao may now be the league's best center. Still, I am hard pressed to say he is more valuable to the Rockets than is Nash, Gilbert, TD, or Dirk to their teams.
All-Star Picks
Leastern Conference
C Dwight Howard
F Jermaine O'Neal
F LeBron James
G Gilbert Arenas
G Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
David Lee
Michael Redd
Caron Butler
Vince Carter
Paul Pierce
Chauncey Billups
Western Conference
C Yao Ming (injured - so we have 13 players instead of 12)
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Tim Duncan
G Steve Nash
G Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett (14.3 - Roland Rating)
Josh Howard (12.0)
Carmelo Anthony (9.4)
Tracy McGrady (9.1)
Tony Parker (8.7)
Amare Stoudemire (8.1)
Shawn Marion (7.4)
Allen Iverson (7.0 - adjusted for time in both teams)
posted by arun at 11:47 PM
2 Comments:
jason kidd????????
jason is great. but, with good reason, he hasn't been on an all-star team nor an all-nba team in 2 years. (actually he probably shouldn't have about 3 years ago either.)
i'm sure he will be selected for all-defense team again (despite the fact that he is a defensive liability this season - the counterpart PER is around 18 while his own is at 21). yes he is a gifted passer, and yes he has aged pretty well. but the quality guards list runs deep now and I don't know who we would bump for J Kidd's sa
gil and wade are not even in the conversation. redd is not either. so i guess it comes down to chauncey and carter. well Carter's Roland Rating is above Amare Stoudemire's, while Kidd's is well below Allen Iverson's. I don't even think Kidd is the most valuable player on his own team - evidenced especially by the mangament's interest in dealing him this year. Chauncey over Kidd. Easily. Better D at that spot. Much more efficent. Chauncey is like Kidd in that they are both reasonably big guards. But while Chauncey does not board as well, he is a much, much better shooter - a true shooting percentage of 60%! He means a lot to what the Pistons do, and they have been miserable without him.
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