Friday, January 26, 2007

Championships on the Cheap

There are a few qualities that no amount of game-time statistics captures. Some are hackneyed terms such as "leadership", "poise", and "being a locker room guy".

However, one that I find to be very important, seems to get lost in the discussions. This trait is a star player's willingness to take a pay-cut.

We all feel bad for Kevin Garnett. Poor KG - he has no supporting cast. Poor KG - it isn't his fault. Well, it might not be his fault on the court, certainly. He is remarkably efficient and anchors a (surprisingly) good defense despite being the only strong defensive player on the team. Despite his mediocre clutch-time capacity, he is one of the top 5 forwards in the league. But off the court? I argue that some of his team's woes are his own doing. Garnett takes one of the highest salary's in the league and makes it very difficult to build either a deep team or hire many talented teammates. In fact, he holds the 3rd highest single-season salary record, and also has led the NBA in salary for 4 straight season. During that expensive run, his T-Wolves got out of the post-season once, and he also had a 13-18 playoff record (a terrible 41.9% win-loss record!).

Hogging up the salary cap seems to be a quick way to kill the development of your team. Of the top 40 highest paying seasons in NBA history, only Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, and Rasheed Wallace have won rings in any of those seasons. Certainly this is not inflation adjusted, but my point will eventually about Duncan (a player in the modern era) so things like inflation adjustments serve only to further demonstrate what little pay he takes.

Enter Duncan. He has 3 rings, 2 MVPs (should have 3), 3 Finals MVPs, and has been a perennial All-NBA and All-Defense Team member (only player in history to be on both each of his first 9 seasons in the NBA, and will likely make it 10 this season). His highest paying season ever comes ranked as #47 on the list at $15 million. More perspective. Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, Allan Houston, Penny Hardaway, J-Kidd, AI (yes I like his play, but his terrible contracts cost him talented teammates), Starbury, Kobe Bryant (yeah he sells jersey's, but call me back when he is on the same plateau as Duncan), and even Michael Finley have made more money and have enjoyed loftier contracts.

I think the irony is that of all the players on the list (except for Jordan, possibly...) Duncan is the one who least needed to purchase his own teammates. He can play up-tempo (remember when he wiped the floor with Nash, 4-1, playing fast two years ago) or the slow game - he defends extremely well in both situations, and is phenomenally offensively efficient. There is not another player on that list (other than Jordan) who can do this. Even today, if you were to pick 1 player to build a team around (the rest of your team is arbitrary/random) - Duncan would clearly be the consensus choice.

What is even more interesting is that - over the last 20 years - only 4 of the championship teams had the highest paid player. 2 were Jordan seasons (97, 98) and 2 were Shaq seasons (2000, 2006). That's it. End of story. It gets even more interesting if you start looking at percentage of maximal salary that the key player on a winning team held. The lesson learned is that unselfish players who are willing to give up 20-40% of there salary (like Duncan giving up $13 million relative to Garnett) are able to attract qualitity players. Just think, with $9 million he bought Horry and Brent Barry. Consensus is that Duncan is a better player at the end of the day than KG (who is also great). Now certainly Duncan + Horry + Barry + $4 million > KG, no?

Thus, in addition to being a great leader, clutch-performer, defensive stalwart, multiple-time MVP, and the most consistent player in the post-Jordan era - perhaps Tim's greatest virtue is his unselfishness - his willingness to concede $15 million year in and year out and instead opt for talented teammates while emphasizing that character matters a damn lot in a sport where most stars lack it.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

MVP Race and All-Star Picks

MVP Race
Name (PER, Roland Rating)

1. Dirk Nowitzki (29.9, 15.5)
2. Tim Duncan (27.3, 13.8)
3. DWade (30.4, 16.7)
4. Gilbert Arenas (27.1, 15.5)
5. Steve Nash (26.0, 11.3)
6. Yao Ming (29.1, 13.5)
7. LeBron James (26.6, 14.1)
8. Kobe Bryant (25.6, 10.1)


This list is not that controversial - though perhaps the ordering might be. First, we address why Tim Duncan is so high despite not being as flashy as Kobe, James, or Nash. Well, he flat out is a more efficient player - for one. And two, adding to the fact that he has the 6th best (or so) PER in the league, let us remind ourselves that PER is an offense-biased metric. Considered to be the best defensive big man in the league (aside from arguably Ben Wallace), Tim is having a phenomenal season both offensively and defensively (in terms of efficiency) despite playing diminished minutes. Of course, as usual he plays quality minutes and gets his team a comfortable lead whenever he is in the game by impacting both ends of the floor. The Spurs would not be where they are (this year or for any of the last 9 years) without TD. It seems that we have gotten too used to his stellar play to be willing to bestow upon him another MVP-type accolade.

Second, I've been asked why DWade is on this list. For some odd reason, people seem to think that an MVP must be on the best team in the league. Barkley even went as far as to say "When I won MVP ... sure Michael was the best player ... but I should have won ... we were rewarded for being the best team". He repeated the same argument about Malone. But the best team has a lot more to do with coaching, management and scouting. A great system goes a long way to sustaining a great team, without even having great players (remember the Kings of old?). Of course, great players can (and sometimes are) members of excellent systems, and this should not be held against them. The obvious example here is Tim Duncan. The Spurs are probably the best run organization in the league - their scouting record (especially international scouting) is absurdly impressive. They look for character of players. They are extremely well coached. Etc. But the Spurs' system hinges on the unique play of a gifted forward/center who is skilled at screen settings, passing out of doubles, is virtually unguardable, all while being the mainstay of one of the best defenses in the league. Does anyone else other than TD fit this bill? Possibly, possibly, KG comes close. And that's the end of the list. The point to take away from this is we ought not judge what player was the most valuable based on the system - we must judge based on his own play. Wade's Heat are 15-12 with him on the floor and have not won a game with him out. That's the difference between 5th/6th seed versus last place in the Eastern Conference. His PER is league-high, as is his Roland Rating. Why, then, do I put him only at 3? I will be the first to maintain that PER, RR, and other statistics are not without their own faults. While they give us powerful metrics to better understand the game, they are not the last word.

Third, Yao is so low because he is a little hurt and his team (thanks to in part to McGrady's sort-of resurgance) is doing ok. The Rockets seem to be doing fine for two reasons. First, McGrady is a brilliant, absolutely brilliant passer as well as scorer. But second, and much more importantly, JVG's system is working. The Rockets are the league's best defensive team this year - with or without Yao. Yao may now be the league's best center. Still, I am hard pressed to say he is more valuable to the Rockets than is Nash, Gilbert, TD, or Dirk to their teams.



All-Star Picks

Leastern Conference
C Dwight Howard
F Jermaine O'Neal
F LeBron James
G Gilbert Arenas
G Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
David Lee
Michael Redd
Caron Butler
Vince Carter
Paul Pierce
Chauncey Billups


Western Conference
C Yao Ming (injured - so we have 13 players instead of 12)
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Tim Duncan
G Steve Nash
G Kobe Bryant

Kevin Garnett (14.3 - Roland Rating)
Josh Howard (12.0)
Carmelo Anthony (9.4)
Tracy McGrady (9.1)
Tony Parker (8.7)
Amare Stoudemire (8.1)
Shawn Marion (7.4)
Allen Iverson (7.0 - adjusted for time in both teams)