NBA 2006 Playoff Predictions

My bracket.

Round 1
West
San Antonio over Kings in 4 - Um, let's move on.
Phoenix over Lakers in 6 - Kobe will go nuts in at least 3-4 games. As usual, the Suns will win 2-3 of them.
Dallas over Memphis in 5 - The prize for Memphis actually trying? Getting their ass beat by the Mavs.
Clippers over Denver in 7 - I feel so bad for Memphis, who would have won this matchup anyway.

East
Detroit over Milwuakee in 4 - No comments necessary.
Miami over Chicago in 5 - This will probably be a damn interesting series.
Indiana over New Jersey in 7 - Upset! Upset!
Cleveland over Washington in 7 - If LeBron hadn't gone nuts over the past month and a half, I would have gone with Washington.


Conference Semi-Finals
West
San Antonio over Dallas in 7 - Weird: My MVP's team won't go past the semi-finals!
Phoenix over Clippers in 6

East
Detroit over Cleveland in 5 - I actually wonder if they will get one game?
Miami over Indiana in 6


Conference Finals
West
San Antonio over Phoenix in 6 - I figure they will improve on their pathetic showing last year.

East
Detroit over Miami in 6 - I liked last year's Heat more than this year's, despite Wade's ascendancy into superstardom.


NBA Finals
Detroit over San Antonio in 7 - This breaks my heart, but I have no reason to go against Detroit at this time.


Of course, I would prefer either Miami or San Antonio to win it all.

Brad DeLong's Morning Coffee

Adam sent me an interesting post on Brad DeLong's blog that I had missed.

Brad DeLong's Morning Coffee

It is a super interesting read.

2005-2006 Awards

Before I get to the awards, let me just say, this year was like the steroids year in baseball. The foul changes, etc., really changed the game. How? Well for the last 30 years (if not more) the top performers in PER were always big men, with the occassional stellar guard. This year, shooting guards dominated. Even guys who are awsome but average low PERs (like most little guards such as AI) had 26+ PER this season. Seems to suggest that they got a huge surge out of the (a) new pace of the game and (b) more importantly the perimeter foul calling. Sure, I guess the modern era basketball player might find guard play more exciting. But that gives people an affection to a style of play that won't win in the playoffs unless you are MJ. Bigs win. (Except for MJ.) Bigs dominate. You need awsome bigs to win, no matter how you change hand checking rules.

On to awards.

Coach of the Year: Byron Scott
This was a sort of easy pick. He easily made the most out of nothing. He milked a near .500 record out of a team that everyone thought would be dead last in the league. This should shut up the nay-sayers who claimed that Scott sat around while Eddie Jordan and Lawrence Frank were the "real" coaches back in NJ. Now the other potential was Avery Johnson. Man, he made a 60 win team out of Nowitzki + change. I'm sold on this guy as a coach.


Most Improved: Boris Diaw
I don't see anyone else in the running.


Sixth Man: Mike Miller
I am tempted to give it to Stackhouse - but Miller did more coming off the bench. It really is a cheat, though, because Miller is really a starter on any other team. So playing against second string guys - he dominates. Also, Antonio McDyess deserves a mention.


Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Duncan
Tempting to give it to Big Ben. And I would have no qualms with that. But he has 3 and since I'm indifferent between these guys, give it to Duncan. He (once again) led the league in defensive rating - even on one leg. And I think he has a harder group of people to guard, with greater strength at the 5 and 4 spots in the West.


Rookie of the Year: Chris Paul
Again - who else is in the running?


All-Defensive First Team:
Ben Wallace
Tim Duncan
Ron Artest
Bruce Bowen
Dwyane Wade

It is really hard not to put Tayshaun on this list. Same for Sheed. But Artest was just that good with the Kings this year. Oh - and to everyone who keeps saying Kobe is the best two-way player in the game. Who are you kidding? Stop watching highlight reels which are geared to pump him up and either watch a large volume of games or go out and do some data analysis. He falls squarely in the "above average perimeter defender" category. Pierce, Carter, McGrady (not this year obviously) all rate above him. The only real standout in that whole category is Wade.


All-Defensive First Team:
Rasheed Wallace
Shawn Marion
Shane Battier
Tayshaun Prince
Jason Kidd

I kind of cheated on positions here. But that's ok. Anyway, honorable mentions go out to (by position): Chauncey Billups, Quinton Ross, Gerald Wallace, Andrei Kirilenko, and Marcus Camby.


All-NBA First Team:
Elton Brand
Dirk Nowitzki
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Kobe Bryant

This breaks my heart. First, I really really really wanted Tim Duncan to go 9 for 9 on the first team. He is right now the only player to be on it all 8 of his first 8 seasons. Damn plantar fascitis. Second, it was absurdly hard leaving out AI for a guy who nearly went 33/7.5 at 45% from the field with 2 steals per game to boot.


All-NBA Second Team:
Shaquille O'Neal
Tim Duncan
Shawn Marion
Steve Nash
Allen Iverson

What is the first thing any basketball nut will notice looking at this list? 4 former MVPs on the 2nd team together. Damn - a new generation has arrived, I guess. Oh and to those who ask why an injured Tim over KG? Well look what he did for his team while on court. A one legged Tim Duncan over a KG any day!


All-NBA Third Team:
Ben Wallace
Ron Artest
Paul Pierce
Chauncey Billups
Chris Paul

Yes, Chris Paul was that good. It's too bad that McGrady and Yao were so hurt. That Artest pick must seem insane. But we are talking about a near last-place Kings winning at over a 67% clip since Ronnie joined.



MVP:

Honorable Mentions: Shawn Marion, Elton Brand, Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups
All played damn well. But not really MVPs in my book.


10. Vince Carter
The resurgence of the Nets, despite a fading Kidd, largely owed to this man.

9. Tony Parker
Carried an injured Spurs through the year to (presumably) the #1 spot in the West. Led them in scoring, assists, FG%, and steals. More importantly, was very very consistent through the year. And he is only 23 - let's not forget. (He is barely 3 years older than me!)

8. Carmelo Anthony
Clutch city. But he doesn't do a whole lot other than score (in the clutch). He certainly was worth a lot of games to the #3 Nuggets - but let me put it this way. If he wasn't the single most clutch player in the NBA right now on a division leading team, I probably wouldn't have him so high.

7. Chris Paul
Holy shit. This was supposed to be like a 20-25 win team. They were 1 or 2 wins away from the playoffs.

6. Ron Artest
This one was probably unexpected, no? But the Kings were a near last place team and are now in the playoffs. He changed the defensive culture in Sac. It's too bad that the Suns didn't make a run at him.

5. Kobe Bryant
Since the next 5 are pretty hotly contested, the comments might run a little long.

Bill Simmons is wrong when he says that Kobe was worth 25 wins to the team. They don't even have 45 wins on the season. So, Bill, are you saying they would have been an 18 win team? The supporting cast isn't that terrible. Plus even the terrible Knicks and Blazers have 22 and 21 wins respectively. So why don't we put a clamp on that hyperbole and say at best Kobe was worth 15-20 wins for the Lakers. In a related story, we do have someone who was proven to be worth 20+ wins for a team: Tracy McGrady. He was worth about 24 wins to a team that could not win at all in 17 or so games without him (until they finally got their shit together). Now Kobe's season was stellar. But let me put the scoring binge in perspective. First, 62 points in 33 minutes. Big deal right? You know who else did that? Karl Malone. (Well actually 61, but still.) And with just 26 shots (21-26). Absurdly efficient! So Kobe did it against a good Dallas team? Well Malone did it against a Cavs team (that were playoff contenders at that time). Look, most people won't tell you that Malone isn't the greatest power forward (or even 2nd or 3rd on that list) just because of his scoring binge. A lot of players can do that. Now players bent over backwards humbling themselves to Bryant for his 62 in 33 or his 82? Look, let's be honest here. You think Malone couldn't have done that in the 15 remaining minutes in his game? But if Malone could do it, you don't think Shaq could do it? Or the Dream? Or even Timmy? Or MJ? Or McGrady (pre-back)? Or Bird? Or D. Rob? But few have the ego to really take what amounts to taking 56 shots (fouls included) in a single game. And few teammates have that kind of patience. And lastly, what really allowed that was that it was against a Raptors team which never clocked him for it. A decade ago someone would have came at you.

All that said, he has been phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal this year. 35+ a game is pretty stellar. And to be intellectually honest, we probably should downgrade that to 32-33 to properly compare it inter-temporally to the decade before. But still, damn amazing. Comparable to Jordan's sophomore* season offensively speaking. Except with a lower scoring average. And a much lower field goal %. And with crappy defense**.
(*=His real 2nd season he was injured and only played 18 games.)
(**=Jordan averaged 3 steals and over 1.5 blocks a game that season. It was one of the single most amazing defensive guard performances ever.)
But let's get real. Even Jordan didn't win MVP that year. He was just regarded as an awsome, all-around ballhog. Which is what Kobe is, minus the all-around part.

4. LeBron James
I want him to win the MVP this season. Why? Because my next three picks won't. And I don't want this to be the year of the Kobe. It is absurd. People really don't seem to have a historical context for Kobe's performances, and so the writers are going to vote for him. (Two caveats. First, I guess since there is no set standard for MVP, some people like Simmons do have criteria that they feel Kobe meets. I disagree, but whatever. Second, and more importantly, there are a lot of people with good basketball knowledge such as Kenny Smith, Barkley (he is very knowledgable), Reggie Miller, Ernie Johnson, a number of APBRmetricians, who do agree that Kobe isn't on the short list.) But other than these guys, I fear that the general public and probably most writers will vote for Kobe. So I'm hoping they are more seduced by LeBron.

His statline is insane: 32 ppg, 7 boards, 6.6 assists, 48% from the field. But interestingly, other than his scoring and his field goal percentage, his other numbers (including his supposedly improved 3 point shooting percentage) have all dipped.

But he emerged in two important ways. First, he got over (hopefully) his aversion to tense situations. Going from being a "star" player who gets pulled from shooting free throws in clutch minutes, he single handedly came back and destroyed the Nets a week ago. (A 14 win streak Nets!) And he has also hit a game winner and has begun to make other clutch time shots recently. Now it will be a while before he is compared to actually awsome clutch shooters (Melo', AI, Redd, Duncan) or even good clutch shooters (Wade, Pierce). But it is nice to see that he is improving. Second, he has played well down the stretch and ensured his team's clinching of a playoff spot. (In stark contrast to last year where they went on a giant losing streak and dropped out of the playoffs.)

3. Dwyane Wade
I really wanted him to win this year. And a few weeks ago, I thought it might be it for him this season. Top 10 in per game FG made (but not in attempted - hence hella efficient), PPG, Assists, FT made, FT attempted, Steals. He leads the league in PER, and his season statline reads: 28 ppg, 7 assists, 6 boards, 2 steals, 1 block, at fg% of 50%. And yet he is 4th on this list. Admittedly the Heat have "underachieved", going 2-11 or something against top 5 opponents. However, I don't like the build of this team. I'm prepared to argue that they are a really shitty team. Injuries aside, I don't like a lot of their supporting cast. And in that sense, I'd argue that they are only doing as well as they are because Wade has emerged as a ridiculous player. He is easily the best two-way guard in the game. If he ever adds range to his game, he will be the most complete guard in the game. (Jordan, who, like Wade, shot a miserable percentage his first few years in the league, eventually developed the range. He even went season shooting nearly 4 3's a game at 40%! So there is certainly hope for Wade.)

It is weird because Simmons says that as of 4 weeks ago Wade was his pick, but then he started struggling. Interestingly, over his struggle, Wade has averaged 23 points, 7.3 assists, 5 boards, 3 steals, shooting at 50.8%. Sounds like a struggle for Wade is an amazing average for any other player!

Anyway, let me address the obvious question: Why Wade ahead of James here? Well I thought long and hard about it - and sat for a while comparing their supporting cast. Let's be real here - the Heat supporting cast sucks too. It is pretty terrible. And while the recent triple double by James in a win against the Heat is fresh in my mind, Wade did outplay James in the wins in the two other games (hence season series). Of course, my decision doesn't come down to their playing each other. But it does add some weird insight - considering both most realize that this is going to be the matchup of the future. Anyway, I have got to look at the season panoramically, since MVP isn't "best play in the last week of the season". And with that, I take Wade over LeBron.

2. Steve Nash
Everyone has career years when they play with Nash. It is crazy. Now I think Diaw is a different case. He has been given an opportunity to showcase his talents and has done a great job. But everyone else relies heavily on Nash (except for Marion). Last year people said us Nash supporters were full of crap and argued that Amare was the real reason that they were so good. Really? This year, they are a 50+ win team again without Amare, Q-Rich, or Joe Johnson. So is it Nash, or is it Marion? Well Marion is awsome, and I think he is one of the most underrated players in the league. But most econometric number crunching points to Nash being the catalyst. And hell, just watch the team. Nash is amazing. And certainly compensates for his defensive suckiness.

1. Dirk Nowitzki
The 7 foot 3 point champion is my MVP this season. 27 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 apg, 1 blk, 48% FG%, 41% 3 PT are great numbers - but certainly don't seem to eclipse the gaudy numbers of James or Wade. Then look at the roster. 38 year old Darrell Armstrong? Erick Dampier?? Adrian Griffin? Devin Harris? An (always awful) injured Keith Van Horn? Josh Howard is admittedly developing into a great player (but was injured a lot), Jason Terry is streaky shoot-first pg, and Stack has been awsome this year. But this cast doesn't exactly say "a starting 5 who could all be on the All-Defensive team or all could be All-Stars" or "the greatest PF to play in the NBA, a crazy Argentinian who destroyed the US team and won Olympic gold, a 23 year old dating a hot woman, one of the greatest clutch shooters of all time, one of the better 3pt shooters of all time, one of the best scorers in Mavs history, a few other great clutch shooters, one of the best non-big defenders (if not the best) in NBA history". And yet Nowitzki (and Avery, obviously) were able to milk (presumably) 60 wins out of this team and keep them in the hunt just behind the Pistons and the Spurs. 60 wins with 1 All-Star. I'm just saying that such a feat doesn't seem to be very commonplace.

Anyway, here is my proof in a nutshell. Kenny Smith and Charles Barkely have a feud with Mark Cuban. And they go out of their way to bash the Mavs, Mark, and Dirk. Guess who their picks was for MVP? Yes, Dirk Nowitzki. Case closed ladies and gentlemen.


Guess for what will happen: In a close race, Kobe Bryant will edge LeBron James for the MVP. Billups, Nash, Wade, Dirk, and Marion will also pickup votes (in that order). Damnit. Players 1-4 I'm pretty indifferent between who wins. But Kobe, Marion, etc. should not be taking home the award this year.

Brad Pitt on March Madness

From The Sports Guy's Column:

*****

Before we get to the mailbag, I wanted to announce that a record was broken during Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament for "Most e-mails about the exact same random subject." Let's have Vicki from Charlotte explain:

"I was enjoying a lovely Sunday afternoon at the gym when I realized March Madness was on the television screen in the fitness area. I thought this would be a perfect opportunity to impress my boyfriend (a diehard Tar Heel fan) and return home with some knowledge about one of the games. However, as I watched the Bradley (BRAD)/Pittsburgh (PITT) game and checked out the score (in the bottom corner), I couldn't get past the fact that the score read "BRAD PITT." I actually laughed out loud. It was even spelled correctly! Needless to say, I couldn't tell my boyfriend a single fact about the game and wound up looking even more like your stereotypical girl. Any suggestions?"

Getty Images/Scott Quintard

Was Brad Pitt paying attention to the BRAD PITT game?

Don't worry, Vicki -- you weren't alone. At least 50 male readers e-mailed me just to say that their wives or girlfriends noticed the exact same thing. A quick sampling:

While watching the Pittsburgh-Bradley game for 2 hours, my wife sits down on the couch and within 3 minutes asked why it says "Brad Pitt" on the screen. I guess the tourney really has something for everyone.
-- Ted Reed, Minneapolis

Wife walked in while I was watching Bradley-Pitt in the second round, looked at the score in the bottom right of the corner, and said, "Wow ... the screen says Brad Pitt!" Yet another reason to ban all women during tournament time.
-- Kevin, Albany, N.Y.

In the spirit of your Sports Gal/Sports Mom NCAA Tournament brackets, my wife had the following comment during the Bradley/Pitt game. She says in the most excited voice I have heard from her during televised sports and tells me that the box score says "Brad Pitt." Only a woman would notice that.
-- Ryan, Phoenix

And so on. My favorite e-mail came from David Rushall in Denver, who noticed the graphic before his wife and reported afterward, "I kept telling my wife 'Look, there's Brad Pitt!' She could not believe I could pick him out of the crowd during live play, so she continued to scan the crowd. After a while I let her know it was just the score in the upper left corner: BRAD 74, PITT 66. I giggled and continued to point him out every 10 minutes until the games ended."

Was this some sort of sociological experiment by CBS? Were they trying to increase the number of domestic violence incidents during that first weekend? Nobody knows. But the BRAD PITT saga led to an intriguing question from Dan in Villanova:

"This made me wonder if there were any other match-ups in any sport where the abbreviation would be a celebrity's name. I bet each of my buddies $5 that I could think of another one besides BRAD PITT. Can you come up with any? I don't feel like losing $30."

Well, I racked my brain trying to come up with one match-up so Dan didn't have to lose the 30 bucks. Couldn't think of one. So I went to ESPN.com's page that lists every college hoops team and wrote down every possible name that could fit into one of those spots for a graphic: TEX (Texas), RICH (Richmond), PITT (Pittsburgh), BRAD (Bradley), PENN (Penn), BROWN (Brown), BALL (Ball State), CAL (California), JACK (Jacksonville), SAM (Samford), BUCK (Bucknell), KEN (Kentucky), KENT (Kent State), RIDER (Rider) and BROWN (Brown).

Playing the mix-and-match game, there are two possibilities: Either a Jacksonville-Bucknell game (JACK BUCK) or a Troy-Brown game (TROY BROWN) ... and those two names aren't even remotely in Brad Pitt's class, nor would they have gotten your average female viewer to scream excitedly at the screen. I don't know about you, but I'm starting to realize that this BRAD PITT graphic was a once-in-a-lifetime event, not just because of the odds but because of the male-female ramifications in every household.

*****

I really don't know how to follow that.