Guards and the Inflation Effect
Jordan and Pippen's last year together, the total number of 40 or more points in a game performances by all players in the league was, well, 37. Last year, it was 67. This year, as of about a week ago, half-way through the season, guess what the number is? 54. No kidding. 54. And yes, Kobe is on a scoring binge, but let's not forget that Jordan averaged over 37 one year (Kobe is still about 2 points under that per game) and yet that year there weren't so many 40+ point games.
The consensus (Pippen, Wilbon and Tony K, Hollinger, whomever really who follows basketball) on why this is happening seems to be the following:
1) You can't hand check guards on the perimeter. You can't as much as touch a guy at the perimeter. This makes defense on guards much tougher to play, giving them an advantage over past years.
2) More fouls called. It kind of goes with 1, but it kind of is independent. All sorts of fouls are being called right and left. To illustrate this fact, John Hollinger chronicled the foul shot rate as being the key reason for inflating scoring this year. This also means that penetrating guards are advantaged, because they are likely to go to the stripe, and since guards shoot better than bigs, you see more offenses running these types to take advantage of the foul flurry.
3) A decline in the quality of big men. There are some snazy power forwards in the league now, but there were some back in the day too. But take a look at the center spot. About a decade and a half ago, you had: Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo at the center. Now who do you have? Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Brad Miller, Ben Wallace, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Yao Ming, and of course an old Shaq and a post-operative Alonzo Mourning. Ok ok. If Amare wasn't broken throw him in too. I think the only reasonable comparison in that whole group is Dikembe Mutombo with Ben Wallace, though Mutombo was easily a much better offensive player. And I guess Amare with Shaq - (btw this isn't complementary. It is because, in the early 90s, Shaq was the worst defensive center on that list, and all the others, except for Dikembe, could average 27 a night but were also good at defense). Why do we care? Honestly, because big men are relevant - to winning, to punishing guards, etc. Or at least they were. Now you have a depreciated quality of men guarding the paint against (arguably) a better crop of overall guards in the league - you see where I'm going with this?
So combine 1), 2), and 3) and you get a formula for high scoring nights for guards. Really really high scoring nights. On pace to double last year's (already inflated) number of 40+ point games. Just important to remember things like this to contextualize things - that way we don't go over-exaggerating the meaning of some of these scoring binges.
The consensus (Pippen, Wilbon and Tony K, Hollinger, whomever really who follows basketball) on why this is happening seems to be the following:
1) You can't hand check guards on the perimeter. You can't as much as touch a guy at the perimeter. This makes defense on guards much tougher to play, giving them an advantage over past years.
2) More fouls called. It kind of goes with 1, but it kind of is independent. All sorts of fouls are being called right and left. To illustrate this fact, John Hollinger chronicled the foul shot rate as being the key reason for inflating scoring this year. This also means that penetrating guards are advantaged, because they are likely to go to the stripe, and since guards shoot better than bigs, you see more offenses running these types to take advantage of the foul flurry.
3) A decline in the quality of big men. There are some snazy power forwards in the league now, but there were some back in the day too. But take a look at the center spot. About a decade and a half ago, you had: Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo at the center. Now who do you have? Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Brad Miller, Ben Wallace, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Yao Ming, and of course an old Shaq and a post-operative Alonzo Mourning. Ok ok. If Amare wasn't broken throw him in too. I think the only reasonable comparison in that whole group is Dikembe Mutombo with Ben Wallace, though Mutombo was easily a much better offensive player. And I guess Amare with Shaq - (btw this isn't complementary. It is because, in the early 90s, Shaq was the worst defensive center on that list, and all the others, except for Dikembe, could average 27 a night but were also good at defense). Why do we care? Honestly, because big men are relevant - to winning, to punishing guards, etc. Or at least they were. Now you have a depreciated quality of men guarding the paint against (arguably) a better crop of overall guards in the league - you see where I'm going with this?
So combine 1), 2), and 3) and you get a formula for high scoring nights for guards. Really really high scoring nights. On pace to double last year's (already inflated) number of 40+ point games. Just important to remember things like this to contextualize things - that way we don't go over-exaggerating the meaning of some of these scoring binges.
posted by arun at 11:33 PM
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